Historical Biogeography and Climate-Driven Vulnerability of Torrent Frogs (Ranidae: Amolops): Insights Into Long-Term Climate Refugia
Aim
Identifying climate refugia is essential for effective biodiversity conservation under ongoing climate change, especially for amphibians that are highly sensitive to temperature and humidity variations and face increasing threats from global warming. This study focuses on the genus Amolops, aiming to reconstruct its historical biogeography, evaluate its vulnerability to past, present, and future climate change, and identify its potential long-term climate refugia.
Location
The Hengduan Mountains and adjacent regions.
Taxon
Amolops (Amphibia, Anura, Ranidae).
Methods
We analysed three mitochondrial gene fragments (16S rRNA, COI, and ND2) to reconstruct the ancestral distribution and historical demography of Amolops species. Ecological niche modelling and climate-niche factor analysis were conducted to assess species vulnerability under past, present, and future climate scenarios and to identify potential long-term climate refugia.
Results
Biogeographic analysis suggested that Amolops originated in Myanmar during the middle Oligocene to early Miocene and then expanded outward. Suitable habitats contracted during the Last Glacial Maximum and under future climate scenarios, with species such as A. deng and A. tuberodepressus projected to lose substantial habitat. Vulnerability assessments further indicated that A. chaochin, A. deng, A. tuberodepressus, and A. xinduqiao were particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Main Conclusions
The diversification of Amolops appears to have been strongly influenced by Miocene geological and climatic changes, which shaped both the distribution and evolutionary history of the genus. Climatic fluctuations have markedly constrained suitable habitats, with species sensitivity proving more critical than habitat exposure in determining vulnerability to climate change. Despite these challenges, the Hengduan Mountains contain multiple regions likely to have served as long-term climatic refugia, supporting the persistence of Amolops species. Current protected areas encompass only a small fraction of these refugial zones (< 7%), highlighting substantial gaps in conservation coverage and underscoring the need to prioritize these regions in future biodiversity protection efforts.
